Comodines de la NFL, probabilidades de CFP: mejores apuestas para Oregon-Indiana, Bills-Jaguars Mas Cipolleti

I started 2026 off with a bet on Indiana (-6.5) against Alabama. It was over at halftime and everyone knew it. 

That’s the way you wish every bet could go.

It’s also great mojo to start a heater.   

As for this weekend, I’ve got a bet on Friday night’s Peach Bowl and four other plays across a busy football landscape. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

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2025 Record: (38-48-6, -14.5 units)

Indiana (-3.5, O/U 48.5) vs. Oregon

The Hoosiers are so popular it hurts. And after everyone watched them bash Alabama, people are convinced they can’t be stopped. Eh. Let’s remember, when IU and Oregon met in October, the game was tied in the fourth quarter. I don’t have a gap this big. My numbers have Indiana -2.5 on neutral, while two of my oddsmaker buddies in Las Vegas have -2 and -1. Take the points.

PICK: Oregon (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright

Bills (PK, O/U 51.5) @ Jaguars

By now, you’re probably aware I need Buffalo to make a deep run. I have multiple Super Bowl positions at a variety of prices and have no reason to abandon ship against Jacksonville. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the best player in the NFL and if he ships an “A” game, it’s tough to envision a loss. Buffalo’s defense has rounded into form and is getting healthier, too.

PICK: Bills to win pick ‘em

49ers @ Eagles (-5, O/U 44.5)

Whew, do the wise guys love Philly here. I wrote about it earlier this week and spoke to a professional bettor who laid Eagles -3.5 and -4. The onslaught continued on Thursday afternoon and the Eagles are now as high as -5.5 in the market. Seattle dominated San Francisco in the trenches last Sunday and Philadelphia is better on the offensive and defensive lines. The world champions might not win pretty, but they can easily win by seven or more.

PICK: Eagles (-5) to win by more than 5 points

Texans (-3, O/U 38.5) @ Steelers

Professionals also love the Steelers. Westgate SuperBook Vice President of Race and Sports John Murray told “Chicken Dinner” that some of their sharpest players took Pittsburgh +3.5 and +3. Meanwhile, most recreational shops are reporting extremely high ticket counts on the Texans. I love siding with the sportsbooks in situations like this and will be on the home underdog.  

PICK: Steelers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright

Indiana (-3.5, O/U 48.5) vs. Oregon
Chargers @ Patriots (-3.5, O/U 46)

Let’s call this the “Justin Herbert parlay.” Both games have a wide range of potential outcomes and, of course, both underdogs can win outright. You already know I like Oregon to go blow for blow with Indiana, and I’ve always trusted Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh in big games. This is a one-unit play to win almost six units. I’ve certainly made dumber bets over the years.

PICK: Oregon moneyline and Chargers moneyline (+570)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.

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