Probabilidades de NFL, CFP 2025: mejores apuestas para JMU-Oregon, Patriots-Ravens

Let’s bet the College Football Playoff.

I find myself loving one of the Saturday underdogs and have paid real close attention to the way the betting market has taken a stance against one of America’s favorite teams.

I’ve also got a few NFL plays for Sunday, and I’m adding more Bills’ future stock, too.

Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

2025 record: (30-42-6, -16.0 units)
2025 record: (32-45-6, -17.3 units)

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No. 12 James Madison @ No. 5 Oregon (-21, O/U 46)

Wise guys have taken a stance against a Ducks blowout. When the bracket was announced, Oregon was a 20.5-point favorite. Early money drove the line to -21.5 and -22, but some serious resistance showed for JMU earlier this week. Multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks got hit at +22 and +21.5, and now the market is crossing through that key 21. Dukes dual-threat QB Alonza Barnett III can definitely do enough to keep this one inside the number.

PICK: JMU (+21) to lose by fewer than 21 points or win outright
PICK: JMU (first half +12.5) to trail by fewer than 12.5 points at half or lead outright 

Patriots @ Ravens (-3, O/U 49)

The Ravens are much healthier on the defensive side of the ball and this is a brutal spot for the Patriots following Sunday’s meltdown against Buffalo. They had the Bills dead to rights, and blew a 24-7 lead at home. Now they’ve got to get off the mat and beat Lamar Jackson & Co. in primetime? That’s never an easy task, despite how hit or miss Baltimore has been all year. I’m laying the wood.

PICK: Ravens (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Steelers @ Lions (-7, O/U 52)

Another year, another Mike Tomlin team scratching and clawing toward a winning record. It’s like clockwork. The Lions will be a popular side here, but I believe Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense can hang around. Clearly, the market expects both teams to score, with a total in the low 50s. It’s never fun betting against Detroit, but getting 7 here has me pulling the trigger.

PICK: Steelers (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright

Bills to win Super Bowl +800

Here we go again. This is the third time I’ve suggested a bet on Buffalo to win the whole enchilada. I did it before the season, then wrote 600 words on why it’s a good idea to add more with Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow out of the way. If Josh Allen goes into Winter Soldier mode like he did at New England last weekend, the Bills will be a very tough team to kill in January.

PICK: Bills (+800) win Super Bowl

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.

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