2026 World Cup Draw Prediction: Full Group Mock + U.S. Scenarios BigSoccer.com
Predicting a World Cup draw is half science, half dark arts magic, and FIFA never fails to make the process feel like some strange blend of math, politics, and lotto-night ceremony. With the final pots nearly locked for 2026 — and the hosts Mexico, Canada, and the United States already slotted into A1, B1, and D1 — we can use the rules and structure in place to have some fun today. And yes, those rules matter. FIFA’s confederation limits and pathway protections for Spain, Argentina, France, and England force the draw into some very specific shapes.
So instead of firing off a “vibes-only” prediction, this run respects the entire rulebook: no group with more than one CONCACAF, AFC, CAF, or CONMEBOL team; every group has at least one UEFA but no more than two; and the top four teams are separated so they can’t meet before the final. To put it lightly, it is a lot.
With the draw on Friday, it seems like the perfect time to whip up some predictions for the 12, yes 12, groups in the World Cup. Getting them fully confed-legal is tricky, but manageable. Also, I had some fun and whipped up some other scenarios for the United States, including a dream draw, a truly hellish nightmare of a draw, and one that feels like pure chaos on paper.
Let's dive in, shall we?
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2026 World Cup Draw Prediction
| Group | Teams |
|---|---|
| A | Mexico (CONCACAF), Morocco (CAF), Norway (UEFA), Denmark (UEFA Playoff 4) |
| B | Canada (CONCACAF), Switzerland (UEFA), Egypt (CAF), Paraguay (CONMEBOL) |
| C | Spain (UEFA), Japan (AFC), Côte d’Ivoire (CAF), Haiti (CONCACAF) |
| D | USA (CONCACAF), Croatia (UEFA), Uzbekistan (AFC), Ghana (CAF) |
| E | France (UEFA), Senegal (CAF), Qatar (AFC), Curaçao (CONCACAF) |
| F | Brazil (CONMEBOL), Australia (AFC), Panama (CONCACAF), DR Congo (Qualified via Inter-Confed Playoff) |
| G | Argentina (CONMEBOL), Iran (AFC), Scotland (UEFA), Cabo Verde (CAF) |
| H | England (UEFA), Colombia (CONMEBOL), Algeria (CAF), Jordan (AFC) |
| I | Portugal (UEFA), South Korea (AFC), South Africa (CAF), Wales (UEFA Playoff 1) |
| J | Netherlands (UEFA), Uruguay (CONMEBOL), Saudi Arabia (AFC), Slovakia (UEFA Playoff 3) |
| K | Belgium (UEFA), Ecuador (CONMEBOL), Tunisia (CAF), Ukraine (UEFA Playoff 2) |
| L | Germany (UEFA), Austria (UEFA), New Zealand (OFC), Suriname (Qualified via Inter-Confed Playoff) |
Group A
Mexico gets a medium-spicy-but-manageable group with Norway lurking as a team that could cause problems.
*This assumes Denmark comes out of their UEFA Playoff.
Group B
There isn't a super-easy path for Canada in this draw scenario.
Group C
Spain should cruise, but Japan and Côte d’Ivoire are absolutely going to be fun to watch, while Haiti is playing the 'happy to be here' card in their first trip since the 70s.
Group D
For the FC Dallas faithful out there reading this, yes, the draw potentially has Petar Musa taking on the USMNT. And of course, Ghana...we're always going to get Ghana.
Group E
France vs Senegal is the headliner, and everyone else is basically fighting for oxygen. Curaçao is a wild card in this group for me.
Group F
Brazil gets the “this looks easy on paper until it absolutely isn’t” special.
*Also, this plays out the scenario that DR Congo advances in the intra-confed playoffs.
Group G
Argentina’s group feels calm, but Scotland certainly could be an intriguing team to watch battle it out in this group after going through UEFA qualifying.
Group H
England better sort it out early — Colombia and Algeria have zero respect for their reputation.
Group I
Portugal gets a balanced group where every match feels like mild turbulence.
*This assumes Wales comes out of their UEFA Playoff.
Group J
The Netherlands–Uruguay matchup alone could kill everyone's bracket predictions.
*This assumes Slovakia comes out of their UEFA Playoff.
Group K
Belgium gets a sneaky-tough group full of teams built for low-scoring misery.
*This assumes Ukraine comes out of their UEFA Playoff.
Group L
Germany draws the most “well, this could get weird fast” combination of the entire tournament.
*This plays out the scenario that Suriname advances in the intra-confed playoffs.
Possible USMNT draw scenarios
| Scenario | Group | Teams |
|---|---|---|
| Best-Case Draw | D | USA (CONCACAF), Switzerland (UEFA), South Africa (CAF), New Zealand (OFC) |
| Headache Draw | D | USA (CONCACAF), Uruguay (CONMEBOL), Scotland (UEFA), Ghana (CAF) |
| Pure Chaos Draw | D | USA (CONCACAF), Morocco (CAF), Norway (UEFA), Jordan (AFC) |
| Polictial Nightmare Draw | D | USA (CONCACAF), Egypt (CAF), Ukraine (UEFA), Iran (AFC) |
In all honesty, most US groups give me anxiety. A lot could come down to who that first opponent is or isn't from the group draw. I'd love to see the US get off to a hot start and go from there, but, as we know from past World Cups, anything is possible.
